Original Article

Under-estimation and Over-estimation in Gastric Cancer Incidence Registry in Khorasan Provinces, Iran

Nastaran Hajizadeh, Mohamad Amin Pourhoseingholi , Ahmadreza Baghestani, Alireza Abadi, Mohammad Reza Zali

Nastaran Hajizadeh
Department of Biostatistics, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Mohamad Amin Pourhoseingholi
Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. Email: Amin_phg@yahoo.com

Ahmadreza Baghestani
Department of Biostatistics, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Alireza Abadi
Department of Biostatistics, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Mohammad Reza Zali
Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Online First: August 01, 2016 | Cite this Article
Hajizadeh, N., Pourhoseingholi, M., Baghestani, A., Abadi, A., Zali, M. 2016. Under-estimation and Over-estimation in Gastric Cancer Incidence Registry in Khorasan Provinces, Iran. The Cancer Press 2(3): 43-45. DOI:10.15562/tcp.22


Gastric cancer is a disease which the cells forming the inner lining of the stomach start to divide uncontrollably, forming a mass called a tumor. Patients with gastric cancer from low facility provinces like North and South Khorasans may diagnose and registered in full featured provinces like Razavi-Khorasan; this causes misclassification error. The presence of this error makes the registry systems inaccurate and unreliable for estimating the burden of cancer and policy making. Two approaches are recommended for reducing the effects of misclassification; the first is using a small validation sample and the second is a Bayesian analysis which provides subjective prior information for the subset of the parameters to correct the statistics. Data for this study extracted from Iranian annual of national cancer registration report in 2008. The age standardized rate due to gastric cancer [ICD-10; C16] were expressed as rate per/100,000 population for male and female of North, South and Razavi Khorasans. To correct the misclassification effect, a Bayesian approach was used with Poisson count regression and beta prior. The reported expected coverage of cancer incidence for Razavi-Khorasan was 155.5% and exceeds than what expected, whereas the North and South Khorasans have just observed respectively 34.8% and 41.4% of their expected coverage. The results of the Bayesian analysis indicated that there was about 34% misclassification in gastric cancer incidence registry from North and South Khorasans in Razavi-Khorasan. In planning for resource allocation, authorities should consider that, low incidence of gastric cancer in North and South Khorasans, may be the effect of misclassification and it is needed to allocate them more health facilities and improve their address registration accuracy using National ID, electric bill, etc.

 

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